Sober Second Thoughts: That one kinda hurt

The truly sad thing about last night’s last minute loss to Columbus was that for about 92 minutes Toronto played one of its best road games in its history. The Reds were aggressive, were creating and very much deserved a result.

But then injury time came. Once again Toronto fans were left shaking their head as they watched TFC throw points down the toilet with a last second goal against. It’s a common occurrence for the team, which never seems to make things easy on itself.

Why does TFC blow points last so often? If I had the answer I’d probably be manager-boy instead of blogger-boy. I’ve heard some suggestion that it has to do with the style TFC plays – it’s too offensively orientated, it’s gassed by the time the game winds down. Of course it could just be a talent issue. Toronto is tied with Dallas for the third most goals allowed in the league.

Certainly you could question Chris Cummins decision yesterday to put O’Brian White into the game as a late substitute – it wasn’t really the time to get the kid experience, and it didn’t seem like an opportunity for an offensive sub either. Still though, bringing in White wasn’t what caused the marking to disappear at the end of the game.

With the loss, Toronto drops out of a playoff spot for the first time in several weeks. If the post-season started today, TFC would miss by one point. Colorado would cross over to play in the east as the fourth seed. The truth is, the loss was even more damaging to the Reds. TFC’s record has been built on the back of a lot of home games so far and Toronto did not do enough in those games to make fans comfortable. If you project TFC’s record and adjust for home and away results, you’ll find this prediction as the final standings in the East:

• Columbus - 46
• DCUnited 46
• N.E. Revs 45
• Chicago 44
• Toronto FC 40
• Kansas City 37
• Red Bulls 16

Although Toronto would get to the magical 40-point figure, fifth in the conference is not a position you would want to be in on the final day. It might get you the final wildcard, but it would be far from a sure thing.

Of course the games are played on the pitch, not calculated in my den. Those projections see Toronto only six points off the lead in the East. With a third of the season to go, Toronto still is in its best ever position heading into the stretch.

The Reds are still in the playoff hunt. They just have to figure out how to squeeze points out on the road. It’s a scary prospect for the Reds fan, but things could be worse. They could be the Red Bulls.