Not as complicated as it seems: The MLS playoff picture for TFC

You had best sit down. This seems convoluted. But, it actually isn’t. Unless it is.

Currently, the best I can tell (MLSnet has yet to update the standings) Toronto sits in ninth place, in a four way tie for the final playoff spot. Dallas wins the four way tiebreaker by having the best overall goal differential of the three teams in that tie that were also tied in the first tiebreaker criteria (total points in games involving the tied teams). You still with me?

There are still two playoff spots at play. Seattle clinched a spot with its 3-2 win over K.C. tonight. Six teams are chasing those two spots – Toronto, New England, Dallas, DC United, Colorado and Salt Lake. However, Salt Lake is pretty much out of it as it would need to win and have a lot of other things go right. So really it’s five teams for two spots.

There are way too many possible scenarios to try and list them all, but, as far as Toronto is concerned it really comes down to winning against New York. The Reds will be the first of the playoff chasers to hit the pitch next week, so a T.O. win could have everyone chasing. Toronto would actually jump into the seventh slot with a win.

A draw would not immediately eliminate them, but it’s not something that they would relish.

The games:
Toronto @ New York
Colorado @ SLC
DCU @ KC
New England @ Columbus
Dallas @ Seattle
SLC at home versus Colorado

It’s interesting to note that all the realistic chasers are on the road (and it’s one of the reasons why a tie might, bizarrely, be enough). However, a TFC win combined with Dallas not getting the full three points against Seattle would clinch a playoff spot.

Why, you doubters ask?

Because Toronto wins any tiebreaker with DC United and New England. The only thing that mucks it up is if Dallas gets into the tiebreaking mix. So, provided that Toronto assures itself of finishing ahead of Dallas (the only team it can end tied with -- if it beats NY -- that it doesn’t win the tiebreaker), the worst they can finish is eighth.

Also, Toronto almost assuredly would clinch a playoff spot if it wins and Colorado fails to get the full three points (the worst case scenario there would see T.O. in a four way tie for seventh. Dallas would win the tiebreaker to capture the seven seed and the eight seed would go to either New England or Toronto, depending on which of those teams had the better overall goal differential. Toronto currently has a one goal advantage in that category, so New England would need to win by multiple goals against Columbus).

So, to summarize, next week TFC fans need to be looking west (and, of course, hoping for a win). If Seattle can finish off its home regular season with a result and TFC does what it should, you can buy your playoff tickets!